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Stocks stay bullish as optimism from PM visit to China grows; index crosses 42,000 mark
Summary

Investors in stock exchange are keenly watching the flow of funds into Pakistan as PM collected funds from Saudi Arabia, visit of UAE delegation to Pakistan and this week departure to China for further enhancement of economic relationship with China. Accordingly, the KSE-100 is adding positive points to its Index. Since October 15 till the end of the week Nov 2, the KSE-100 Index has increased by around 12 percent. The KSE-100 Index has moved up from 37,518 on October 12 to 42,004 this Friday.

During the week the average volume was 322 million an increase of 7 percent from previous week. Notable was the 461m volume traded on Monday, which is the highest since May 24, 2017. The market capitalization increased to Rs8.389 trillion. WoW increase in Index was 3.57 percent.

The week started with bullish trend on Monday as KSE-100 Index added 897 points to close at 41,453.76. The volume touched highest level of 461m since May 24,2017. The news of government asking UAE to provide oil deferred payment facility encouraged the investors. Also stocks of steel and cement contributed 334 points on the housing scheme of the government.

Despite profit-taking by investors on Tuesday, the Index added 155 points .The optimism continued over Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to China and the Information Minister asserting that the country had overcome the balance of trade issues. The KSE-100 Index closed at 41,609.03.

It was a range bound trading on Wednesday as investor remained cautious over Supreme Court’s decision on Aasia Bibi’s blasphemy case in the early hour of trading. The volume declined to 285m from 328m previous day but the KSE-100 Index added 40.33 points to close at 41,649.36.

There was countrywide protest on Supreme Court’s decision over Aasia Bibi. This kept the market range bound on Thursday. The market closed at 41,716.10 adding another 66.74 points. The volume declined to 245m as later the government announced an increase in prices of all petroleum products.

Last day of the week Friday started on sluggish note with uncertainty over protestors’ outcome. As market progressed there was news of $6 billion China package, which brought energy into the market. The Index climbed by 288 points to close 42,004.09. The volume too increased to 292m.

Participants/Activity

On average shares of 387 companies were traded. Of these 212 were gainers and 159 were losers and 16 remained unchanged.

Foreigners were net seller $12.62m during the week; companies were seller by $1.67m, Banks were seller $4.27m; Mutual fund net seller $10.79m and individuals net buyers $20.59m.

Volume leaders during the week were: Bank of Punjab 155m; K-Electric Ltd 93m; Pak Elektron 78m; Pak Int. Bulk 58m;TRG Pak Ltd 51m; Engro Polymer 40m; Lottee Chemical 35m; Power Cement 25m; Shabbir Tiles Xd 19m and Fauji Cement 12m.

 

Triggers
  • Foreign reserves held by SBP decreased by $48 million to $7.78 billion during the week ended on Oct 26.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan profit declined by 26 percent to Rs175.6 billion in FY18 from Rs238 billion last year.
  • The Board of Privatization Commission on Tuesday decided not to privatize PIA and Steel Mills.
  • Repatriation of profits and dividends from Pakistan has dropped by 19 percent in 1QFY19 reported by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Bank profits to remain under pressure according to Fitch.
  • Shipments of Christmas-related export orders suffered badly as a large number of consignment could not meet the shipping schedule.
  • IMF wants Railways to end reliance on government subsidies told to Railway Minister by delegation of IMF.
  • Pakistan ranked eleven places higher in World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index and moved from 147 to 136th position.
Conclusion

The coming weeks will further clarify the fund inflow position for Pakistan as the negotiation with IMF will progress. The next level of high is 42,639.

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