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CPI, SPI Inflation grow in August 2018

According to the statement published by Pakistan bureau of statistics (PBS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation general grew by 5.8 percent on year-on-year (YoY) basis during August 2018 as against to a rise of 5.8 percent in the last month and 3.4 percent during August 2017. On month-on-month (MoM) basis, it grew by 0.2 percent during August 2018 as against to a rise of 0.9 percent in the last month and rise of 0.2 percent during August 2017.

The officials of PBS also reported that the core inflation measured by non-food non-energy CPI (Core NFNE) grew by 7.7percent on (YoY) basis during the last month of 2018 as against to a rise of 7.6 percent in the last month and 5.5 percent during August 2017. On (MoM) basis, it grew by 0.2 percent during August 2018 as against to a rise of 1.2 percent in the last month, and a rise of 0.1 percent in the same month of previous year i.e. August 2017.

Inflation in Pakistan (%) (Base 2007-08) (YoY)
Period CPI Core Inflation SPI WPI
General Food Non-food NFNE Trimmed
17-Jul 2.9 -0.1 5.1 5.6 4 -0.4 0.7
17-Aug 3.4 1.3 5 5.5 4.2 -0.1 1
17-Sep 3.9 2.4 4.9 5.4 4.1 1.9 1.6
17-Oct 3.8 2.2 4.9 5.3 4 2.1 2.3
17-Nov 4 2.4 5.1 5.5 4.2 2.1 2.9
17-Dec 4.6 3.8 5.1 5.5 4.7 2.2 3.4
18-Jan 4.4 3.7 4.9 5.2 4.6 2 4.7
18-Feb 3.8 2.2 4.9 5.2 4.3 0.5 4.1
18-Mar 3.2 0.1 5.4 5.8 4.1 -1.8 3.6
18-Apr 3.7 -0.2 6.4 7 5 -0.5 4
18-May 4.2 1 6.4 7 5.1 0.5 5.6
18-Jun 5.2 3 6.7 7.1 5.4 1.9 7.6
18-Jul 5.8 3.5 7.4 7.6 5.9 3.6 10.5
18-Aug 5.8 3.3 7.6 7.7 5.9 3.3 11

The statistics also showed that the core inflation, measured by 20 percent weighted trimmed mean CPI (Core Trimmed) also grew by 5.9 percent on (YoY) basis during August 2018 as against to 5.9 percent in the last month and by 4.2 percent in August 2017. On (MoM) basis, it grew by 0.2 percent in August 2018 as against to a rise of 0.9 percent in the last month and an increase of 0.1 percent in the same month of previous year i.e. August 2017.

Furthermore, the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY grew by 3.3 percent during August 2018 as against to a rise of 3.6 percent a month earlier and a decline of 0.1 percent during August 2017. On monthly basis, it grew by 0.2 percent in August 2018 as against to a rise of 1.2 percent a month earlier and a rise of 0.5 percent during August 2017.

The report also mentioned that the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on YoY basis grew by 11.0 percent during August 2018 as against to a rise of 10.5 percent a month earlier and a rise of 1.0 percent during August 2017. It is also recorded that the WPI inflation on MoM basis grew by 0.8 percent during August 2018 as against to a rise of 2.4 percent a month earlier and an increase of 0.3 percent in the same month of last year i.e. August 2017.

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Petroleum prices

It is also estimated that the present government may raise price of a litre of petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) by Rs4 each and even the rates of kerosene oil and light diesel oil (LDO) may go up by Rs3 each in a monthly revision for October 2018. If the government accepts the rise in petroleum product prices, the price of petrol will go up from Rs92.83 to Rs96.83 per litre and HSD from Rs106.57 to Rs110.57 per litre. Similarly, the price of kerosene oil will increase from Rs 83.50 to Rs 86.50 per litre and that of LDO from Rs75.96 to Rs78.96 per litre.

Gas prices

The government has also increased natural gas prices by up to 143 percent to recover Rs 94 billion from consumers, in effect slashing consumer subsidies that were a fiscal drag on the government’s budget.

The rise may make gas utility companies financially viable but will stoke inflation because of rise in the price of commodities. Sources also noted that the decision will hurt as many as 9.4 million local users – 3.6 million of them declining in the lowest income slab and another 2.63 million in the second lowest income group. Because of rise in gas prices for the power sector, the electricity will become expensive by 12 percent.

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