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Rising prices of food and non food items

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) recorded in the report published in June 2018 that the prices of top few commodities, which increased from previous month are; tomatoes (41.66%), potatoes (6.78%), onion (6.18%), fresh fruits (5.47%), spices (1.41%), meat (1.04%), wheat flour (1.00%), wheat (0.85%), vegetables ghee (0.74%), dry fruits (0.70%), tea (0.68%), sugar (0.62%), beverages (0.41%) and bakery & confectionary (0.31%). Furthermore, the few commodities which decreased from previous month are betel leaves & nuts (7.68%), eggs (3.74%), besan (2.78%), pulse mash (1.66%), pulse masoor (1.62%), pulse moong (1.59%), fresh vegetables (1.46%), gram whole (1.32%), chicken (0.98%) and pulse gram (0.86%).

PBS also recorded that the prices/rate of non-food items Increased from previous month are; transport services (4.02%), motor fuel (3.29%), kerosene (1.97%), footwear (1.31%), tailoring (1.03%), mechanical services (0.94%), marriage hall charges (0.61%), construction input items (0.61%), doctor (MBBS) clinic fee (0.57%), house servant (0.47%), washing soap & detergents (0.41%), construction wage rates (0.37%), personal care (0.36%), cotton cloth (0.35%), household equipment (0.23%), readymade garments (0.20%) and drugs & medicines (0.13%). Whereas the decreased in price from the previous month are; woolen cloth (0.89%), household textile (0.32%), motor vehicles accessories (0.32%), cosmetics (0.32%), communication & apparatus (0.05%) and personal equipment (0.02%).

The inflation, measured through Consumer Price Index (CPI) is steadily on the rise following the recovery in international commodity prices, consolidating local demand and depreciation of the rupee. The CPI tracks the prices of almost 480 commodities every month in urban centres in Pakistan. The statistics shows that the consumer price index (CPI) inflation General rose by 5.2 percent on year-on-year (YoY) basis in June 2018 as against to a rise of 4.2 percent in the previous month and 3.9 percent in June 2017. On month-on-month (MoM) basis, it rose by 0.6 percent in June 2018 as against to a rise of 0.5 percent in the previous month and decline of 0.4 percent in June 2017.

The report also revealed that the Core inflation measured by non-food non-energy CPI (Core NFNE) rose by 7.1 percent on (YoY) basis in June 2018 as against to a rise of 7.0 percent in the last month and 5.5 percent in June 2017. On (MoM) basis, it rose by 0.3 percent in June 2018 as against the rise of 0.2 percent in previous month, and a rise of 0.1 percent in same month of previous year i.e. June 2017.

In the outgoing fiscal year, it is also said that nearly 14 percent depreciation in the exchange rate has pushed up fuel prices as well as those of imported goods, while the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) improved the discount rate by 75 basis points to 6.5 percent. The rise in the non-food inflation is chiefly because of rise in oil prices in the past few months and the combined impact of the depreciation of the exchange rate and hike of crude oil prices in world markets was passed on to the consumers.

 

The official of PBS also explained that the core inflation, measured by 20 percent weighted trimmed mean CPI (core trimmed) grew by 5.4 percent on (YoY) basis in June 2018 as against to 5.1 percent in the last month and by 4.2 percent in June 2017. On (MoM) basis, it rose by 0.2 percent in June 2018 as against to a rise of 0.3 percent in the last month and a rise of 0.0 percent in same month of previous year i.e. June 2017.

The economic experts also revealed that the gradual build-up of local demand is evident in the growing core inflation. Of the 89 commodity groups of CPI, it covers the price movement of 43 items. The gradual build up of local demand is evident from growing core inflation, which measures non food, non energy prices, to over 7 percent in June 2018. Because of the continuous rise in education and healthcare costs, core inflation remained higher on average compared to the same period last year. The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY grew by 1.9 percent in June 2018 as against to a rise of 0.5 percent a month earlier and a rise of 1.4 percent in June 2017. On MoM basis, it grew by 1.8 percent in June 2018 as against to a rise of 0.1 percent a month earlier and an increase of 0.1 percent in June 2017.

Moreover, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on YoY basis grew by 7.6 percent in June 2018 as against to a rise of 5.6 percent a month earlier and a rise of 3.3 percent in June 2017. WPI inflation on MoM basis grew by 1.5 percent in June 2018 as against to a rise of 1.3 percent a month earlier and a decline of 0.5 percent in same month of last year i.e. June 2017.

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) also noted that YoY the top few food commodities prices which increased from previous year i.e. June 2017 are; betel leaves & nuts (190.86%), chicken (26.20%), tomatoes (16.77%), onion (14.18%), dry fruits (10.32%), meat (9.45%), rice (8.83%), sweat meat (7.84%), spices (5.98%), condiments (5.86%), jam, tomato ketchup & pickles (5.51%), readymade food (5.45%), fish (5.03%), tea (4.90%) and milk products (4.87%). Although the few commodities which prices were decreased during the period are; pulse mash (26.57%), potatoes (25.61%), pulse masoor (13.02%), pulse gram (12.58%), pulse moong (12.12%), besan (8.65%), gur (6.42%), sugar (6.35%), gram whole (6.08%), eggs (1.82%) and fresh vegetables (1.69%).

PBS also showed that the price of Non-food Items Increased on YoY basis are kerosene oil (34.37%), motor fuel (17.30%), education (13.09%), newspapers (12.02%), construction wage rates (10.48%), water supply (10.21%), personal equipments (9.32%), postal services (8.90%), medical tests (8.74%), cosmetics (8.60%), stationary (8.51%), construction input items (8.51%), doctor (MBBS) clinic fee (8.35%), tailoring (8.24%), transport services (8.17%), furniture (7.98%), cleaning & laundry (7.49%), hosiery (7.42%), footwear (7.36%) and household servant (7.15%).

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