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Walking a thin tight rope – Oil prices, trade & budgetary challenges ahead (Facts & Figures)

OPEC PER BARRAL OIL PRICES ($)
Year
Value
Year
Value
2004
36.05
2011
107.46
2005
50.64
2012
109.45
2006
61.08
2013
105.87
2007
69.08
2014
96.29
2008
94.45
2015
49.49
2009
61.06
2016
40.76
2010
77.45
2017
52.03

PAKISTAN: STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES –I (%)
w.e.f.
SBP Reverse Repo Rate
SBP Repo Rate
SBP Policy (Target) Rate
26-Jan-15
8.5
6.0
24-Mar-15
8.0
5.5
25-May-15
7.0
5.0
6.5
14-Sep-15
6.5
4.5
6.0
23-May-16 till date
6.25
4.25
5.75
PAKISTAN TRADES (Million US $)
Period
Exports (BOP)
Growth Rate
Imports (BOP)
Growth Rate
Balance of Trade
Value
Cumulative
Value
Cumulative
a
b
Monthly
Period to Period
c
d
Monthly
Period to Period
a-c
b-d
Jul-16 P
1,495
1,495
-19.9
-15.0
3,093
3,093
-22.4
-13.7
-1,598
-1,598
Aug-16 P
1,840
3,335
23.1
-4.6
3,807
6,900
23.1
1.5
-1,967
-3,565
Sep-16 P
1,672
5,007
-9.1
-5.8
3,209
10,109
-15.7
0.6
-1,537
-5,102
Oct-16 P
1,826
6,833
9.2
-3.7
3,340
13,449
4.1
1.1
-1,514
-6,616
Nov-16 P
1,841
8,674
0.8
-1.8
3,785
17,234
13.3
4.8
-1,944
-8,560
Dec-16 P
1,860
10,534
1.0
-2.3
4,109
21,343
8.6
5.6
-2,249
-10,809
Jan-17 R
1,770
12,304
-4.8
-1.4
4,182
25,525
1.8
8.7
-2,412
-13,221
Feb-17 P
1,747
14,051
-1.3
-2.0
3,921
29,446
-6.2
11.2
-2,174
-15,395
FDI INFLOWS IN PAKISTAN ($ Million)
Sectors
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17 (Jul-Mar)
Oil & Gas
740.6
512.2
629.4
559.6
502
246.1
261.6
100.8
Financial Business
163
310.1
64.4
314.2
192.8
256.4
28.2
56.1
Textiles
27.8
25.3
29.8
10
-0.2
43.9
21
12.5
Trade
117
53
25.3
5.7
-3.2
50
30.1
21.1
Construction
101.6
61.1
72.1
46
28.8
53.5
36.3
264
Power
-120.6
155.8
-84.9
28.4
71.4
201.7
566.6
389.3
Chemicals
112.1
30.5
96.3
71.6
94.9
55.3
64.6
6.5
Transport
132
104.6
18.7
44.1
2.7
6.2
36.8
37.4
(IT&Telecom
291
-34.1
-312.6
-385.7
434.2
45.1
195.2
-18.8
Others
586.3
416.3
282.2
765.5
375.2
-107
40.7
732.7
Total including Pvt. Proceeds
2,150.80
1,634.80
820.7
1,456.40
1,698.60
851.2
1,281.10
1,601.60
FDI Excluding Pvt. Proceeds
2,150.80
1,634.80
820.7
1,456.40
1,698.60
851.2
1,281.10
1,601.60
PETROLEUM PRICES IN PAKISTAN (Rs/Ltr)
Date
HOBC
Premium
HS Diesel
LS Diesel
Kerosene
3-Apr-2017
72.68
74.0
84.0
44.0
44.0
1-Mar-2017
72.68
73.0
83.0
44.0
44.0
1-Feb-2017
72.68
70.29
79.48
43.35
43.25
16-Jan-2017
72.68
68.04
77.22
43.35
43.25
2-Jan-2017
72.68
66.27
75.22
43.35
43.25
1-Dec-2016
72.68
66.27
75.22
43.35
43.25
1-Nov-2016
72.68
64.27
72.52
43.35
43.25
1-Oct-2016
72.68
64.27
72.52
43.35
43.25
1-Sep-2016
72.68
64.27
72.52
43.35
43.25
1-Aug-2016
72.68
64.27
72.52
43.35
43.25
1-Jul-2016
72.68
64.27
72.52
43.35
43.25
1-Jun-2016
72.62
64.27
75.86
40.2
45.23

 

SALIENT FEATURES OF PAKISTAN’S BUDGET FY2017
The total outlay of the budget 2016 17 is Rs 4,894.9 billion.
The resources availability during 2016 17 has been estimated at Rs 4,442.0 billion against Rs 4,168.3 billion in the budget of 2015 16.
The net revenue receipt for 2016 17 has been estimated at Rs 2,779.7 billion indicating an increase of 12.8 percent over the budget estimates of 2015 16.
The provisional share in federal taxes is estimated at Rs 2,135.9 billion, during 2016 17, which is 15.5 percent higher than the budget estimates for 2015 16.
The net capital receipts for 2016 17 have been estimated as Rs 453.6 billion against the budget estimates of Rs 606.3 billion in 2015 16 i.e a decline of 25.2 percent.
The external receipts in 2016 17 are estimated at

Rs 819.6 billion.

The share of current and development expenditure in total budgetary outlay for 2016 17 is 78.5 percent and 21.5 percent respectively.
The overall expenditure during 2016 17 has been estimated at Rs 4,894.9 billion out of which the current expenditure is Rs 3844.0 billion and development expenditure is Rs 1,050.9 billion.
The expenditure on general public service is estimated at Rs 2,707.2 billion which is 70.4 percent of the current expenditure.
The development expenditure outside PSDP has been estimated at Rs 156.6 billion in the current budget.
INFLATION IN PAKISTAN (Base 2007-08)
Index
Averages July-March % Changes
March over March % Changes
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
2017
2016
2015
CPI
4.01
2.64
5.12
4.94
3.94
2.49
SPI
1.42
1.27
2.25
3.12
3.45
-1.89
WPI
3.79
-1.50
0.36
6.40
0.16
-3.67
GDP GROWTH RATE OF PAKISTAN
Fiscal Year
%
2017
4.71
2016
4.0
2015
4.1
2014
3.7
2013
3.8
CHINA–PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC)
Type of project
Economic corridor
Products
Roadways, railways, Special Economic Zones, energy production, mass transit
Location
Pakistan: Baluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, KPK, Punjab, Sindh. China: Xinjiang
Owner
Public
Established
20 April 2015
Budget
$62 billion USD
Status
Partly operational
FATALITIES IN TERRORIST VIOLENCE IN PAKISTAN
Year
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
2011
2738
765
2800
6303
2012
3007
732
2472
6211
2013
3001
676
1702
5379
2014
1781
533
3182
5496
2015
940
339
2403
3682
2016
612
293
898
1803
2017*
185
62
231
478
*Data till April 16, 2017

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